Daniel McNeeley

Help! I'm Betting on Bad Football and I Can't Get Up!

Thursday Night Football in Week 4 features the Denver Broncos (0-3) vs the NY Jets (0-3), a slugfest between two winless teams that according to all metrics are just terrible at throwing and running the football. The Jets have a league-worst dropback EPA and third-worst rushing EPA in the first 3 weeks of the year. Even with Jamison Crowder making his return from a hamstring injury here (on a short week) I don’t expect a magical offensive fix. The Broncos meanwhile have the third-worst dropback EPA and sit slightly below average in rush EPA (@benbbaldwin, twitter.com).

I’d like to say that would make this a very defensive game, but I don’t want to lie to you. The Jets have allowed more points in each game as the year continues, with opposing teams scoring 27, 31, and 36 in Weeks 1, 2, and 3 respectively. The Broncos are in the same boat, allowing 16, 26, and 28 points. While the Broncos have an above average defensive EPA, they still own a -3 turnover differential and have recorded only 4 sacks this year with Bradley Chubb still working on returning from last year’s ACL injury and star veteran Von Miller on injured reserve. Those stats don’t look like they’ll be improving any time soon, as rookie OT Mekhi Becton has been a stalwart this year, and Sam Darnold has only been taken down 6 times in 3 games. This is especially important because the Denver offense has allowed a staggering 13 sacks this season, tied for 2nd worst in the NFL.

So what's the smart locks for this week? None of them are smart, but looking at the data we can make a few guesses.

Moneyline: Broncos +105

Even though the Broncos have struggled, allowing an insane amount of sacks over the past 2 weeks, this offense still has plenty of weapons in Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, and Melvin Gordon. Their defense has been slightly above league average and the Jets can’t keep up with anyone. Fangio’s team has played competitively against 2 undefeated teams in the Titans and Steelers, which is 2 more competitive games than the Jets. I cannot believe the Broncos are underdogs here and I’m dropping stacks on this team to win.

Spread: Broncos +1.5

See above. Cmon now. I took additional lines and picked the Broncos -6.5. The Jets have scored fewer points each consecutive game and though it’s hard to get worse than 7 points, they won’t do much better. Crowder’s return means a few reliable catches during the game, but if that hamstring still bothers him, he won’t be moving as quickly and could face some sticky coverage from opposing defenders keying on him.

O/U 40.5: Under

I never go for the under. Why would you root for less points? But if I’m being smart, this Jets team is awful offensively and the Broncos are equally terrible with a backup QB making his first NFL start. Some have a little more faith in him than others (if you say so, Chris Trapasso) but even if he comes out with the “better than you expect” outcome, the bar is pretty low so it won’t take much to look “better than expected.” The Jets might score 2 TDs with the immortal Frank Gore and possibly a surprise TD pass to Jamison Crowder, but even in garbage time, the Jets have struggled moving the ball. The Jets insist Gase’s job is safe despite reports that he’s on the hot seat for this game, so maybe he opens the playbook and lets loose every trick in the book, but Adam Gase isn’t that kind of guy. On the other sideline, the Broncos have decent weapons, but if they get any kind of lead, Fangio will take the ball out of Mark - err, Brett - Rypian’s hands and they’re going to pound the rock, meaning this game will not be very demanding on the scoreboard operator. Maybe they hit 38 points tonight. Maybe... Or they’ll hit 60+. I’m making an educated guess.

Props:

QB play is a serious issue, and with so many sacks recently, I expect plenty of screens to get the ball in the hands of their best playmakers. I’m picking some serious reception numbers for Fant and Gordon, though the yardage may be hard to come by. Avoid the yardage totals on any receivers in this game, though I’m betting that the receptions will be there for Gordon and Fant.

The Jets, meanwhile, are struggling offensively and defensively. Gregg Williams’ defense might go after this young QB but I don’t think the Broncos give him many opportunities to take him down or force a mistake. With no reliable star power on offense, Frank Gore is the best bet for an anytime TD scorer, though maybe Jamison Crowder can get a garbage time TD in his first game back from a hamstring injury. For funsies.