Daniel McNeeley

What We've Learned About Our Fantasy League After 3 Weeks

3 Undefeateds and My ¼ Season Championship Picks

A quarter way through the season and fantasy football is WILD. We knew that this season would be unusual with the lack of an offseason program and the potential for players landing on the COVID list, but between the slew of week 2 injuries (goddamn Met Life turf) and the explosive offenses across the NFL (#LetRussCook), this year is the most chaotic in recent memory.

Currently 3 teams sit undefeated in the standings: DumbLuckChamp, LetRussellCook, and Prestige Worldwide (fucking always). Let’s breakdown each team to see what’s working for them and if they can keep up the pace.

DumbLuckChamp AKA Chadwick Shibooyah AKA The Highest Points For:

The steal of the draft is usually a late round pick, but in this case, it’s the player chosen 3rd overall: Alvin Kamara. Not only is Kamara the focal point of the entire offense in rushing, he took over Michael Thomas’s share of receiving targets too, putting Kamara at the 2nd overall position in fantasy points. RBs are highly valued because there are so few workhorse backs in the league, and that’s why they go first. But with McCafrey out, Kamara is stunting on these hoes. On top of that, Chad took a chance on an aging Brady in a new offense and so far it’s worked out for him. Drew Brees and his noodle of an arm should have stuck to the TB12 diet because Brady and Evans are a solid tandem considering their draft position. The other super star on this undefeated squad? Tyler Lockett. Lockett is on the field for a staggering 95% of offensive snaps this season and the LetRussCook movement is giving this fourth round pick new life. With no less than 8 targets in every game so far, expect that trend to continue. Although depth is a slight concern, this is fantasy after all, and who cares about the bench? DumbLuckChamp might not need luck this season to win it all.

LetRussellCook AKA 2nd Lowest Points Against AKA I Had The Eagles D For Too Long

The pick I always wanted but was too scared to wait for, Russell Wilson, is the highest scoring player this season in fantasy - so fuck me and everybody else in this league apparently. If Saquon stayed healthy, this team would probably be the one I picked for a real championship run. As it sits though, the top RBs are a rookie in a terrible offense (Dwayne Haskins? Really?) and a RB with prosthetic knees in Melvin Gordon. The real studs sit at WR though, with Ridley, Godwin, and Kelce (he’s a receiver, come at me bro) catching passes on game day. It isn’t fair. That said, the team is vulnerable if you catch them at a bad week, but I don’t expect that to happen too often. Wilson will continue putting up 30-35 points a game with Ridley and Kelce always putting up double digits. With Godwin hurt, this team will miss out on about 5 extra points each week, but the depth here is better than DumbLuckChamp’s so they have some breathing room. They had some luck early in the season playing the garbage teams put forth by HiloBayPackers and Lamarvel Universe, but if he’s still scoring over 110 points in each game then it won’t matter who’s on the other side. It’ll be interesting to see if the bench can step up.

Prestige WorldWide AKA BeeSource AKA LetRussCook2.0

I feel bad for BSauce. I really do. Losing Davante Adams, seeing Thielen struggle week 2 & 3, and missing out on a second quality RB is hard. Okay, I’m lying. This dude’s team is going to screw your team Adesanya style: raw dogging it. Prescott, another of my favorite targets I was too scared to miss out on, is paired with Smith-Schuster and Russell Wilson’s favorite weapon, DK Metcalf. Thielen is still top priority in an inconsistent Vikings offense, but who needs him when these guys are lined up every week? Nick Chubb doesn’t even seem to notice Kareem Hunt, as he’s scored 4 touchdowns in 2 games since a week 1 game where he handled less than 50% of the offensive snaps. I guess the Browns realized they should actually use their best player and he has rewarded fantasy owners handsomely. That second RB spot is tough, but so far Ronald Jones has performed consistently, if not spectacularly. No more than 10 points but no less than 8, at least he won’t give you negative points (Hello, calling Bennie Snell?). A little bit of depth gives this team a decent cushion and while I’m the name recognition might not be there, the production certainly is.

Championship prediction: DoItAllDmac AKA BigYeetus (You assholes didn’t think I would pick someone besides myself did you?)

Championship prediction 2A: DumbLuckChamp - disclaimer: if Kamara gets hurt, he’s going to the toilet bowl. If anyone else gets hurt, it’ll go to Prestige WorldWide.

King of Worst Luck Looking Down the Drain Again (Most PA, Mahomes/Hill scores 52+)

Shaine and OBJ have a lot in common, they just like to get shit on. Also, how many toilet bowl jokes can I make in this segment? 2? I feel bad for the guy. Sitting up by 51.8 points on Sunday night, Botohead really thought he could breathe easy. Unfortunately for him, Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill made a STATEMENT against the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson. Mahomes scored the most points by any player yet this season with exactly 40 and Tyreek Hill continued his streak of consecutive games with TDs. It isn’t Botohead’s fault entirely- no one foresaw Cam Newton and the Patriots imploding against the Las Vegas Raiders (seriously, did anyone pick them to win?). Miles Sanders has been a real nice surprise and Deandre Hopkins will continue to ball at the WR position, sitting 3rd in position rankings. Josh Jacobs hasn’t quite lived up to his ADP, Fournette promptly returned to Earth after a massive 20+ scoring outing, and the only team Hayden Hurst has really played well against? Shaine’s beloved Cowboys. This team is definitely not bad. It put up over 114, 117 in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively, it just sucks that it was against DumbLuckChamp in week 1 and then a Kansas City team with a grudge in Week 3. With 2 great receivers and another in the high-powered Dallas offense, surely his luck can’t be so bad that things keep going wrong? Right? RIght??

Would You Take Old Jeff or New Jeff and Why is it New Jeff?

How does this dude still have $100 FAAB? Looks are a little deceiving though. Although ManaMan has the 2nd highest Points For total, 152 of the 347 came in Week 2 where Josh Allen and Aaron Jones scored ridiculous totals of 34.5 and 43.6 each. When does a RB score that much? In Green Bay’s offense, apparently often. Aaron Jones is the best uninjured RB not named Alvin Kamara, challenging CMC for 2nd best at the position even if he was healthy. To be honest, I’m not a big believer in this team. It has an abundance of great RBs and that should be enough to carry him to the playoffs, but Mana Man is going to struggle if Allen or Jones has an average day. Add to the fact that OBJ is in a run-first offense and Justin Jefferson figures to have rookie highs and lows the rest of the year, ManaMan will likely come out close to .500. Still better than Old Jeff.

Does FAAB correlate to production? Hype and High Hopes

One of my favorite changes to fantasy football since its inception is the FAAB waiver wire, as opposed to the reverse standings style commonly seen across more casual leagues. It adds more of a strategic element to the game and also make people look really really stupid later. Let’s take a look at some of the best and worst waiver wire pickups and see how often it pans out:

My (least) favorite example is also the absolute worst pickup so far of the season and it’s only week 3: $25 for Benny -2.4fpts Snell. Following a decent game in week 1 and the potential for James Connor to miss some time, 5 managers bid for Snell. How was the winning manager rewarded? Snell promptly scored -2.4 points in a starting RB position. Yikes. Sucks to be that guy… I’m that guy.

HiloBayPackers like the cheap guys who immediately go to IR. The first waiver pickup using FAAB was Ryquell Armstead of the Jaguars. Since then, James Robinson has gone on to claim the starting RB job and absolutely bulldoze opposing defenders as well as opposing fantasy teams.

How valuable is Keelan Cole to the Jaguars? Cole racked up some impressive games during week 1 and 2, so it stood to reason he might be the guy going forward. He’s good, but I’m starting to doubt he’s $31 of FAAB good, especially since the next highest bid was a whopping $9. When I like somebody on the wire, I really want to make sure I get him, what can I say. Though I’m beginning to rethink that strategy some.

Although Keelan Cole went for $31 and Snell went for $25, the highest amount paid for a player so far is *drum roll* is Cam Akers at $42. Shizzlez, winless only because DumbLuckChamp is unbeatable, paid the highest FAAB yet for a player who hasn’t scored 5 points, is stuck in a timeshare with Darrell Henderson, and is currently out with a rib injury. The only reason this might not be as bad the Snell pickup is because Akers might get a shot later down the line, especially if he becomes keeper material. Hot take alert: I don’t think he’s even close in this Rams offense.

Actually, almost none of the guys picked up with a high FAAB have contributed anything of value. The closest might be TE Dalton Schultz at $16 by myself who was used as trade bait for Darrell Henderson and has high potential in the Dallas offense. In a way, I used $16 for Henderson. That counts right? So far, it’s looking like spending high FAAB on guys early in the season is not the right move. Maybe some seasons it is and maybe some of these will pan out later, but for now, sit tight and make moves later on when you have a better idea of how guys are going to be used.

Toilet Bowl Updates and Predictions

If the league were to end today, there is one team who has scored less than 250 points and sits at the bottom of the standings: HiloBayPackers. It doesn’t help that he’s had a massive 345 points scored against him, but he has also scored the fewest points of any team in Weeks 2 and 3, though he did score 97.7 in the opener, good for… 7th best. The only other winless team, Shizzlez, faced DumbLuckChamp in Week 3 but would have beaten literally any other team in the league with a second best 120 points (Chad scored 125) - that’s rough buddy. Shizzlez is most likely missing the Toilet Bowl this year as he usually fields a solid team so look for the rebound from a team that has potential to put up solid numbers.

Looking at the lowest Points For totals, Stiff1 and BlukeDAflexa are only a little ahead of Josh in the PF category. BLuke’s Ravens-heavy team came back to bite him during Week 3, accounting for his low points total, but I don’t foresee reigning MVP Lamar Jackson struggling the rest of the season the way he did against the Chiefs nor will Derrick “Juggernaut” Henry be held in check as he did this past week. Stiff1, on the other hand, has a mountain to climb. Drew Brees is a shell of his former self and the team is struggling with injuries. AJ Brown, George Kittle, and Chris Carson are major losses for the regular season, but could come back healthy later. Keenan Allen and Sammy Watkins have also been off to a good start, though only time will tell if they can keep up the momentum. If Chris Carson and George Kittle come back strong, then this team will squeeze some wins. While ManaMan has had the fewest Points Against this season, he isn’t a Toilet Bowl contender, and neither is ZeyTong and his BackupRBTeam who has had an unfortunate 321 points scored against him.

Soon, Huy, Bryson, Shaine, and Josh are going to be talking shit as they avoid the shit towards the end of the season. Final Toilet Bowl prediction:

HiloBayPackers vs KingOfWorstLuck - In the last few weeks of the Fantasy season, HiloBayPackers has a tough schedule, with Deshaun Watson, Brandin Cooks, and David Johnson facing the Bears, Colts, and Titans in 4 out 5 contests. The others are too inconsistent to really predict their play, so in the games of worst of the worst, I made my pick:

Ultimate loser: HiloBayPackers