Daniel McNeeley

Are the Tennessee Titans the Worst Undefeated Team in the NFL?

Fan = an abbreviation of the word “fanatic.”

It would make sense that Titans Twitter is ablaze with hot takes all across the spectrum, religiously defending coach Mike Vrabel and his team or leveling accusations that Vrabel is too proud for his own good, not hiring a defensive coordinator for a team that gave up 30 points to both the Jaguars and the Vikings. Although the Titans sit pretty at the top of the AFC South, the wins have all come within 1 score of roller-coaster style games that have relied too heavily on 4th quarter game-winning drives from the stan-dubbed “TanneGod.” For a team that reached the AFC Championship only a few months ago, there are many doubters outside - and inside - of the fan base and lots of questions surrounding a team that finished 9-7 in the regular season.

One prominent tweet that continues to resonate across the platform: “The Titans are the worst 3-0 team”

But this is the same team that also held a young and potentially explosive Broncos offense to 323 total yards of offense, 14 points and kept Drew Lock’s passing offense to -.18 EPA/play. If Gostkowski’s three missed field goals are taken into account, the Titans scoreboard looks much better and adds to an already impressive offensive showing as Tannehill led the league in dropback EPA/play in weeks 1-2.

(credit Ben Baldwin of The Athletic).

But looking at the Broncos’ advanced stats for the following week, Drew Lock and the Denver offense seemed to help much more than Titans fans would like to think. Drew Lock’s unimpressive start carried over to week 2 where, although he was injured and replaced by Jeff Driskel, his EPA/play was even worse against a stronger Pittsburgh defense and actually improved once Driskel entered the game. (Lee Sharpe’s nflgamedata.com https://rbsdm.com/stats/box_sc... forces us to question the legitimacy of the Titan’s defensive stands in Week 1, especially when held up to scrutiny against the Jaguars and Vikings’ games.

The Titans’ offense continued rolling in Week 2, seemingly regression-proof sitting pretty at the top of dropback EPA on early downs while middling in rushing. The defense though, expecting to drop a Jaguars offense that just lost their rushing leader over the summer, instead gave up 480 yards of total offense, including 102 yards to an undrafted rookie RB and 339 yards to Gardner Minshew who sported a .27 EPA/play - though that pales in comparison to Tannehill’s .76 /play.

What is particularly concerning and very easily seen on film without the quantifiable numbers, is the Titans’ poor late down performance, giving up a 1st down on 73% of those 3rd and 4th downs. For comparison, the week before, the Jaguars converted only 50% of those same downs at -.08 EPA/play against the Colts vs an astonishing 1.29 EPA/play against the Titans. The following week, the Jaguars fell back down to -.96 EPA/play on late downs against the lowly Miami Dolphins.

The Titans defense is bad on 3rd and 4th downs and fans should absolutely be worried.

What about early downs? Surely they perform better in that regard?

Unfortunately, better doesn’t mean good. The Ravens, another undefeated team and also one of the top defenses in the league, have yet to allow a positive EPA/play game (though it is against the Browns and the Texans). What about a less stellar team that isn’t 3-0? Even a downgrade to the Indianapolis Colts reveals an important comparison. The Colts played both the Jaguars and the Vikings, winning against Minnesota, holding them to negative EPA/play in both early and late downs. They also held the Jaguars to a negative late-down EPA/play and a .21 EPA/play on early downs, though they did lose that game 20-27.

Even compared to the Colts, the Titans defense isn’t faring well. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, crushed in an 11-28 loss to the Colts, looked much improved against Tennessee. The numbers aren’t spectacular, Cousins only had a .12 EPA/play and an ECP of 64.7%, but it is concerning that in a game where the offense was hit with 3 week’s worth of regression, the defense - with the debut of new addition Vic Beasely - allowed the Vikings to gain over 400 yards of offense and score 30 points.

So the defense is severely underperforming in late-down situations and certainly not living up to the expectations set by the fanbase or the team itself - signing two edge rushers, drafting Kristian Fulton, and getting a quality corner back from IR was supposed to boost the defense not hold it back. The offense, on the other hand, has performed admirably through 3 contests.

Tannehill suffered his worst game of the season against the Vikings which raises some massive concerns considering this Minnesota team was without two of their top cornerbacks as well as star LB Anthony Barr and his replacement, rookie LB Troy Dye (respectively) who are both on IR.

Regression was inevitable, but considering how well the passing offense performed in Weeks 1-2 this was a serious let down. However, the numbers show a complicated story, as the Titans only had a 50% Success Rate on late downs in the Broncos game - highlighted by Gostkowski’s field goal troubles - with a .08 EPA/play. Then came the more impressive game against the Jaguars where the offense had a quality 77% success rate on late downs and carried a big .78 EPA/play (though the Jags still swung a little heavier with an impossible 1.29 EPA/play on late downs).

Then came the Vikings game, with a lowly -.44 EPA/play but a 43% success rate on late downs. It was also the first game of the season where Tannehill graded negatively. The majority of Tennessee’s points came in the 2nd half, a far cry from the pathetic 2nd half performance against Jacksonville the week prior.

Are the Titans the worst undefeated team? A simpler look at EPA/play on Defense and Offense can help put the teams into tiers, thankfully already generated by Ben Baldwin.

Technically, Seattle and Green Bay are the only undefeated teams that have allowed a higher defensive EPA/play than the Titans, but also carry a significantly higher offensive EPA/play and against better teams both records-wise and using advanced metrics.

Offensively, Chicago and Pittsburgh trail the Titans, but are performing much better defensively, with Pittsburgh pitching a shutout in the 2nd half of Week 3’s game against the Texans, reversing the trend from the prior week against the Broncos (who actually scored more against Pittsburgh than against Tennessee).

Unless the Titans can improve defensively and perform more consistently on offense, they will in fact sit with the Chicago Bears at the bottom bin of the undefeated teams. I don’t believe they are “frauds,” nor do I believe they will miss the playoffs, especially with an expanded 7 team format, but the predictive stats are not promising at the moment. This team has a lot to prove and a Week 4 tilt against the Steelers will be the best opportunity the Titans have for quieting their doubters or inviting even sharper criticism.